The Signal Refinery
For AI
Ideosphere is a forecasting intelligence layer for AI progress, safety, and deployment. We surface decision-grade expectations before narratives harden and misallocation compounds.
Market Velocity
Outpaces
Legibility
:: 2026 STATUS :: AI is no longer a sector. It is the coordination layer for capital, compute, and research. As investment accelerates into the hundreds of billions, institutions are forced to act under uncertainty using lagging benchmarks, fragmented expert opinion, and narrative proxies. In this regime, legibility becomes the limiting factor. Ideosphere exists to make uncertainty actionable.
The Hybrid Advantage
Ideosphere is engineered for environments where accuracy compounds and error is expensive.
Credible Incentive Alignment
Signal is backed by conviction and accountable performance, not opinion or narrative consensus.
Continuous Resolution
Forecasts evolve as reality updates, preserving early insight instead of flattening it into static reports.
Performance-Weighted Aggregation
Influence scales with demonstrated historical accuracy, concentrating signal where it belongs.
Auditable Forecast Records
Every forecast contributes to a durable performance history that compounds into long-term advantage.
Domains
Physical Infrastructure
Forecasting binding constraints—from next-generation chip yields to the deployment and concentration of sovereign and shared compute.
Technical Architectures
Estimating real progress in model reasoning, sparse-attention efficiency, and the frontier of inference-time scaling.
Safety & Governance
Probabilistic evaluation of alignment progress, technical safety benchmarks, and global compute accountability and compliance regimes.
Frontier Discovery
Identifying early, high-signal indicators—tracking pre-print velocity, replication strength, and elite talent migration.
Convert Conviction
Into Impact
Short-horizon performance liquidity
Recurring data participation
Performance-gated long-term upside
Ideosphere produces auditable, back-testable forecasting signal for the window where decisions must be made before consensus forms.
General Inquiries
For serious inquiries outside forecaster participation, you may reach us via the contact form below. Messages are reviewed selectively.